سایت طوفان بت

The Week 3 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 3 slate, including an AFC East Patriots-Jets showdown, Justin Herbert vs. Kirk Cousins and a pair of first-round rookie running backs facing off. It all culminates with a doubleheader on “Monday Night Football” — the Eagles visit the Buccaneers (7:15 p.m. ET) on ABC/ESPN+ and the Rams take on the Bengals (8:15 p.m. ET) on ESPN/ESPN2. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
ATL-DET | BUF-WSH | NO-GB
DEN-MIA | TEN-CLE | LAC-MIN
NE-NYJ | HOU-JAX | IND-BAL
CAR-SEA | CHI-KC | DAL-ARI
PIT-LV | PHI-TB | LAR-CIN

Thursday: SF 30, NYG 12

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DET -3 (46)

Storyline to watch: Atlanta’s No. 8 overall pick, Bijan Robinson, and the Lions’ No. 12 overall pick, Jahmyr Gibbs, will be in action in the same game on Sunday. Gibbs wants to be the best running back out there but says he has been impressed by Robinson so far. Robinson and Gibbs were the first pair of running backs to go in the top 12 picks of the draft since 2017, when Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey were selected fourth and eighth, respectively. — Eric Woodyard

Bold prediction: With Detroit’s offensive line banged up — Taylor Decker (ankle) and Halapoulivaati Vaitai (left knee) are dealing with injuries — Falcons defensive end Calais Campbell will make personal history, picking up career sack No. 100 in the second quarter. It will be one of three sacks the Falcons have against Detroit, which would double their total for the season. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: Robinson has 180 rushing yards (the second most in the NFL) and leads all running backs in receptions (10) this season.

Matchup X factor: Falcons defensive tackle David Onyemata. He has come up huge so far this year with a 22% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, the fourth best at the position. If he and Grady Jarrett are able to break through the Lions’ offensive line and disrupt quarterback Jared Goff, that would go a long way toward slowing down the explosive Detroit offense. — Walder

Injuries: Falcons | Lions

What to know for fantasy: Goff has one of the highest on-target rates through Week 2. He has produced a quarterback rating of 85 or higher in each of the past nine games and has averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game in that span. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Lions are 24-12 against the spread (ATS) under Dan Campbell, the second-best mark in the NFL in that span (since 2021). He is 3-3 outright and ATS as a favorite. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Falcons 27
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: DET, 55.1% (by an average of 1.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Falcons’ Okudah ready for return to Detroit … Montgomery could miss ‘couple weeks’ … Ridder still striving for improvement after 2-0 start … Lions lose Gardner-Johnson to torn pec; he hopes to be back in 2023

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -6.5 (43.5)

Storyline to watch: Sunday’s game will come down to who wins the battle outside the pocket: Bills quarterback Josh Allen or Washington’s defense? Washington has allowed 16 dropbacks to be extended outside the pocket — second most in the NFL — but ranks fourth in completion percentage on those plays (33.3%). Meanwhile, Allen has thrown three touchdowns while outside the pocket — tied for first in the NFL — and has thrown for the fifth-most yards (79). — John Keim

Bold prediction: The two teams will combine for at least 10 sacks. The Commanders are tied for the league lead in sacks with 10, but they have also given up 10 sacks (tied for second most). So, the Bills will have an opportunity to increase their sack total from three. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have won eight of nine matchups against the Commanders since losing Super Bowl XXVI following the 1991 season. Seven of those eight wins have been by double digits (their only loss was on road in Week 15 of 2015).

Matchup X factor: Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller. He’s off to a hot start with just a 9% target rate — best among all corners with at least 50 coverage snaps — and 0.2 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats. If the Commanders are going to beat the Bills, stopping the Buffalo pass game will be key. — Walder

Injuries: Bills | Commanders

What to know for fantasy: The Commanders have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs has 17 receptions for 242 yards and a touchdown in two games at Washington. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Washington quarterback Sam Howell is 2-0 outright as an underdog in his career. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bills 27, Commanders 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 33, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 73.4% (by an average of 8.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bills’ balanced approach could be new blueprint … Commanders relishing starting 2-0 … Young’s splashy return a good sign for Washington’s defense

---

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: GB -2 (42.5)

Storyline to watch: Jordan Love has settled into the QB1 job, but there’s one thing he hasn’t done yet: Start a game at Lambeau Field. In fact, most of his playing time over the past three seasons has come on the road. Of his 135 career passing attempts, only 11 have been at Lambeau Field. Saints quarterback Derek Carr has one career start at Lambeau in 2019 — he threw for 293 yards and two touchdown passes in a loss as a member of the Raiders. — Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: The Saints will hold the Packers to less than 100 rushing yards. Green Bay is averaging just 88 rushing yards through two games, and running back Aaron Jones missed last week with a hamstring injury. The Packers could certainly test the Saints’ pass defense, which will be without starting safety Marcus Maye (suspended), but their run defense will be stout again, especially if Jones isn’t 100%. — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: The Saints have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in a franchise-record 10 straight games. The only team with a longer streak over the past 25 seasons was the Patriots (11 straight in 2018-19).

Matchup X factor: Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed. The rookie has a whopping 38% target rate in two games, which puts him behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. — Walder

Injuries: Saints | Packers

What to know for fantasy: Love has scored 20 or more fantasy points in consecutive games and leads the league in passer rating (123.2). See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Green Bay is 13-4 ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Saints 21
Walder’s pick: Packers 19, Saints 16
FPI prediction: GB, 53.3% (by an average of 1.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Williams (hamstring) expected to miss time … Love not ready to make up for Packers’ deficiencies — yet … Saints WR trio making a difference in crunch time

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: MIA -6.5 (48.5)

Storyline to watch: The Dolphins seek their second straight 3-0 start under Mike McDaniel, and they’ve got a great matchup waiting in their home opener. Miami’s NFL-best passing offense (355 yards/game) faces the Broncos’ 21st-ranked pass defense (233 yards/game) — although Miami might be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who entered concussion protocol this week. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction: The Broncos will need patience and some stops by their own defense, but they will have their first 100-yard rusher of the season. Miami’s defense, with former Broncos coach Vic Fangio calling the shots, makes it hard to find the big plays in the passing game. But the Broncos’ three backs — Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin — and even QB Russell Wilson should find some room against a Miami defense that allowed 233 yards rushing to the Chargers in Week 1 and is allowing opposing runners to gain 4.9 yards per carry. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Wilson’s 17 QBR vs. man coverage this season is the second worst in the NFL behind Steelers QB Kenny Pickett. The Dolphins have used man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL through the first two weeks of the 2023 season (62% of time).

Matchup X factor: Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II. He’s off to a nice start this season with just 42 yards allowed over 60 coverage snaps (that 0.7 yards per coverage snap allowed ranks sixth best among corners with at least 50 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats). Containing the Dolphins’ wide receivers is a mighty challenge, but Surtain is one corner who might be up for it. — Walder

Injuries: Broncos | Dolphins

What to know for fantasy: Wilson has averaged 280.7 passing yards and 18.5 fantasy points per game against the Dolphins in his career. In two games this season, Wilson has thrown for 485 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and rushed for 57 yards. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 14-5-1 ATS as home favorites since 2017. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Dolphins 35, Broncos 30
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 70% (by an average of 7.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Payton eyeing ways to fix clock management issues … Tagovailoa, Dolphins’ offense off to scorching start to 2023 season

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -3.5 (39.5)

Storyline to watch: How will quarterback Deshaun Watson bounce-back following a miserable “Monday Night Football” performance in which he had a 55% completion percentage, was sacked six times and fumbled twice? The Titans’ defense is tied for the eighth-most sacks (7) through two games, which doesn’t bode well for Watson. The defense also won’t have to worry about All-Pro running back Nick Chubb, who is lost for the season with a knee injury. — Jake Trotter

Bold prediction: A late strip sack will lead to a Titans win. The Titans’ defensive line has consistently set its focus on getting to the quarterback and knocking the ball out. Given how Watson has three fumbles in two games, this week will be a prime opportunity for Titans defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons and the defense to generate a late turnover. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Browns have not allowed any red zone touchdowns or field goals. They would be the first team since at least 1978 to not allow any red zone points through three games.

Matchup X factor: The Browns’ surprisingly strong run defense. After ranking 29th in EPA per designed run allowed last season, the defense ranks third in the category after two weeks in 2023. That’s important against a Titans team that is better on the ground than through the air. — Walder

Injuries: Titans | Browns

What to know for fantasy: Running back Kareem Hunt, who signed with the Browns following Chubb’s injury, trailed only Chubb in rushing attempts (442), rushing yards (1,874) and rushing touchdowns (16) during his previous four seasons with the Browns. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 7-2-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season (7-1-1 ATS last nine). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Titans 20, Browns 17
Walder’s pick: Browns 24, Titans 17
FPI prediction: CLE, 57.1% (by an average of 2.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tannehill reasserts himself at Titans’ QB1, leaves bad Week 1 behind … Browns lose Chubb for season after ‘significant’ knee injury … With Chubb out, Browns need Watson to play like $230 million

---

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: MIN -1 (54)

Storyline to watch: Both teams are 0-2 and on a weird run of losing close games, dating back to the 2022 season. The Chargers have lost the past four games they’ve played, all by three points or less, while the Vikings have lost three consecutive games by one score, after winning 11 consecutive such games. — Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction: Justin Herbert will throw for less than 200 yards. Herbert has thrown for fewer than 200 yards four times in his career, one of which came against the Vikings in 2021. The Vikings have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so the Chargers will rely on the ground game. — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: Keenan Allen needs 111 receiving yards to pass Lance Alworth (9,584) for second most in Chargers history.

Matchup X factor: Chargers cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr., Michael Davis and J.C. Jackson. The trio allows 1.8, 2.7 and 3.0 yards per coverage snap, respectively — and the average for corners this year is 1.4, per NFL Next Gen Stats. They’re going against the Vikings, who have the highest designed pass rate in the league (80%). — Walder

Injuries: Chargers | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: While the Vikings traded for Cam Akers to energize their running game, with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison they will continue to rely heavily on the passing game. This season, the Chargers’ defense has allowed the most yards on deep passes. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings have covered five straight meetings dating back to 2007. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Vikings, 34, Chargers 31
Walder’s pick: Chargers 33, Vikings 28
FPI prediction: LAC, 53.2% (by an average of 1.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Chargers not ‘turning our back on each other’ after 0-2 start, defensive woes … Jefferson, Cousins and Hunter start hot ahead of contract talks … No timetable for Ekeler’s return, coach says … Vikings still confident in Mattison after Akers deal

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: NE -2.5 (36.5)

Storyline to watch: It’s all about the streak (the Patriots have won 14 straight in this series) and two 2021 first-round quarterbacks: Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. Jones has regained his footing after a disappointing 2022, while Wilson, starting for the injured Aaron Rodgers, looks to conquer his New England demons (0-4 against the Patriots). — Rich Cimini

Bold prediction: A special teams play will decide the game. Consider that the Jets have converted on six straight fake punts since 2014 (their most recent coming last week versus Dallas), which is the second-longest streak over that span. And the NFL is still buzzing over Brenden Schooler’s blocked field goal last week, as the Patriots look to block a kick in back-to-back games for the first time since 2017. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: Jones has thrown 96 passes this season, which leads all quarterbacks through two weeks and is the third most by any player in the team’s first two games in franchise history (Tom Brady: 100 in 2009, Drew Bledsoe: 98 in 1995).

Matchup X factor: Jets left tackle Duane Brown. His 63% pass block win rate ranks worst among all tackles. He simply has to protect better for his quarterback to have a chance. — Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Jets

What to know for fantasy: With an average of 4.8 yards per target, the Patriots’ wide receiver corps ranks 31st in the league. New England’s receivers now face a solid Jets cornerback unit. This has the makings of a low-scoring affair. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Seven of Wilson’s past eight starts have gone under the total. He is 0-4 outright and ATS in his past four starts. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Patriots 14, Jets 13
Walder’s pick: Patriots 20, Jets 14
FPI prediction: NYJ, 54.7% (by an average of 1.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside Patriots’ thrilling FG block that’s ‘going to change the game’ … Jets’ slow-starting offensive line vows better protection for Wilson

---

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: JAX -9 (44.5)

Storyline to watch: The Texans’ offensive line is ravaged by injuries, which could make things rough for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. He hasn’t thrown an interception but has already been sacked 11 times in two games. The Jaguars’ defense has forced six turnovers and sacked opposing quarterbacks six times in two games. That would seem to be a recipe for the Jaguars to win back-to-back games in the series for the first time since 2017. — Michael DiRocco

Bold prediction: Expect the Texans to force at least two turnovers, with multiple sacks, and pull off the upset. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is 1-3 against the Texans and has thrown three touchdown passes and six interceptions. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Texans rank fifth in the league in pressure rate (44%). When Lawrence is pressured, he completes just 44% of his passes with a rating of 29. — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: Stroud has 91 pass attempts without an interception. He is only 44 attempts shy of reaching the top five longest streaks to begin a career (Dak Prescott 176, Tom Brady 162, Kyle Allen 159, Tua Tagovailoa 153 and Carson Wentz/Desmond Ridder 134).

Matchup X factor: Texans running back Dameon Pierce. He has 69 rushing yards in two weeks of action and now is facing the Jaguars, who have the best EPA per designed run allowed in the league. Stroud could surely use a little more support from the ground game. — Walder

Injuries: Texans | Jaguars

What to know for fantasy: Stroud has amassed 626 passing yards in his first two career starts. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their past seven games as home favorites (1-6 outright). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Jaguars 27, Texans 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Jaguars 21
FPI prediction: JAX, 71.2% (by an average of 7.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Loss overshadows Stroud’s historic day for Texans … Struggling offense should concern Jaguars … Texans lose CB Stingley Jr. to hamstring injury

---

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -8 (45)

Storyline to watch: Lamar Jackson vs. Colts pass rush. Indianapolis ranks second in the AFC with eight sacks, including six last Sunday against the Texans. Last week, Jackson wasn’t sacked for the first time since September 2022 and faced a career-low 9.1% pressure rate, despite missing injured starting center Tyler Linderbaum and left tackle Ronnie Stanley. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: The Colts will hold the Ravens to fewer than 75 rushing yards despite Baltimore’s average of 144 yards through two games. The Colts rank first in rushing defense, allowing just 2.6 yards per carry entering Week 3. That’s not to say Jackson can’t beat the Colts through the air. But an effective performance against the run will make Baltimore’s offense a bit more one-dimensional and easier to defend. — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: Rookie Zay Flowers has 13 receptions in his first two games, which is more than twice as much as any other Ravens player (all other Baltimore receivers have combined for 16).

Matchup X factor: Ravens wide receiver Nelson Agholor. After Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t finish the Ravens’ Week 2 game and was held out of practice on Wednesday, Agholor might take on a larger role. If so, he’s coming off a strong game in which he caught five passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. — Walder

Injuries: Colts | Ravens

What to know for fantasy: Jackson has the second-highest completion percentage (74.5%) among quarterbacks through two games. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts’ past five road games have gone over the total. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Ravens 33, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Ravens 23, Colts 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 77.3% (by an average of 10.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: With Richardson in concussion protocol, QB’s style sparks debate … Jackson’s accuracy has taken the Ravens QB to another level

---

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: SEA -6.5 (42)

Storyline to watch: Bryce Young missed the first two days of practice this week with an ankle injury, putting veteran Andy Dalton in line to start Sunday at Lumen Field. The 35-year-old Dalton isn’t anywhere near the dynamic threat that Young is, but he did game-manage the Saints to a victory over Seattle last October. — Brady Henderson

Bold prediction: Dalton will light up a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (325 per game) with 350 yards and three touchdown passes. That would be huge, considering Young (ankle) has combined for 299 yards passing and two touchdown passes in the first two games. Dalton shouldn’t have to worry about much pressure from the Seahawks, who rank 29th in sacks with two. — David Newton

Stat to know: Kenneth Walker III has four career games with multiple rushing touchdowns, tied for the most by a Seahawks player in his first two seasons in team history (David Sims, Curt Warner, Derrick Fenner).

Matchup X factor: Dalton. I suspect he’ll be an upgrade over Young in the rookie’s current state — Young has a 36 QBR in two games — and that might give Carolina a chance. — Walder

Injuries: Panthers | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: The Panthers have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their first two games. The Seahawks’ offensive line ranks seventh in run block win rate. In this matchup, Walker might exceed expectations. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons, going 0-5 ATS in their past five games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Seahawks 28, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: SEA, 72.5% (by an average of 8.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Panthers not expecting Young to play vs. Seahawks … Seahawks’ Woolen likely out Sunday

---

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: KC -13 (48)

Storyline to watch: First to seven points wins? It hasn’t been that bad for either team, but offensively the Chiefs and Bears have been disappointments though two weeks. These teams are tied for 22nd in the league in scoring with 37 points through two games. Each team, Kansas City in particular, has reason to believe improvement will come if it can stop sloppy offensive play. Still, the problems have been so widespread for the Chiefs and Bears that it’s not wise to expect an explosive, high-scoring game. — Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Patrick Mahomes will toss five touchdown passes against Chicago, three of which go to tight end Travis Kelce. Matt Eberflus is back to calling the Bears’ defense after former defensive coordinator Alan Williams’ sudden resignation. Eberflus’ Colts teams held Mahomes to his lowest Total QBR (56.3) against any team he has faced multiple times, including the playoffs. But the Chiefs quarterback is primed for a breakout performance against a Bears defense that has allowed an average of 25.5 offensive points in the first two games. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Since the start of last season, 54% of the Chiefs’ receiving yards have come after the catch, the highest rate in the league. The Bears rank 31st in opponent YAC per reception over the same span.

Matchup X factor: Bears backup left tackle Larry Borom, assuming he gets the call to replace the injured Braxton Jones. Jones’ 97% pass block win rate ranked third among tackles, so Borom has impressive shoes to fill. — Walder

Injuries: Bears | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: Justin Fields has been sacked on 11.5% of his dropbacks since entering the league. Fields has taken 10 sacks so far this season despite having the fifth-highest average time to throw. Don’t overlook the Chiefs if you’re looking for a streamable defense. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Fields is 8-18-1 ATS in his career, including 0-3 ATS when getting double digits. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Chiefs 33, Bears 13
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 38, Bears 16
FPI prediction: KC, 81.9% (by an average of 12.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: GM says Bears don’t view Fields ‘as a finger pointer’ … Will Mahomes ever be paid what he’s worth? … Reid says Chiefs ‘can fix’ Taylor’s penalty woes

---

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DAL -12 (43)

Storyline to watch: The Cardinals have been able to get to opposing quarterbacks with relative ease through two games, ranking tied for third with nine sacks. Sunday will be a battle of a top-tier pass rush against a top-tier offensive line, as the Cowboys have allowed just one sack of quarterback Dak Prescott. — Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: The Cardinals will have more possessions with fewer than 20 yards against the Cowboys than the nine they have had in their first two games of the season. The Cowboys’ defense has had eight drives in each of their wins, against the New York Giants and New York Jets, in which they allowed fewer than 20 yards. In 111 snaps, opposing offenses have combined for 17 negative-yardage plays. At 15.3%, that ranks second in the NFL. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Prescott will play his 100th career game against the Cardinals. He’s the only player in NFL history with at least 150 touchdown passes and 25 rushing touchdowns in his first 100 games.

Matchup X factor: Cowboys defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa. Here’s another chance for Odighizuwa to shine: He’s currently leading the league in pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle (25%). — Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy: Dallas has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the fewest to running backs and the fewest to wide receivers. If you have players facing the Cowboys’ defense on your fantasy teams, temper your expectations. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cardinals are the sixth team in the past 30 seasons to start 2-0 ATS and 0-2 outright. Those teams are 1-4 outright and ATS in their third game (Falcons won and covered last season). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Cowboys 35, Cardinals 10
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 33, Cardinals 3
FPI prediction: DAL, 88.1% (by an average of 16.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Prescott got in sync with Cowboys’ receivers … Watkins to undergo biceps surgery … Cowboys CB Diggs suffers torn ACL … Cardinals’ offense progresses but needs to finish

---

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: LV -2.5 (43)

Storyline to watch: Beat the Raiders in the teams’ first meeting in Las Vegas and Kenny Pickett will be the first Steelers quarterback to win a game in the Raiders’ home stadium since … Neil O’Donnell back on Dec. 10, 1995 — 2½ years before Pickett was born. The Raiders have won four straight home games against the Steelers (2006, 2012, 2013, 2018) with four different QBs (Andrew Walter, Carson Palmer, Terrelle Pryor and Derek Carr) by the average score of 25-21, beating two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in each of those contests. Those games, though, were all in Oakland. — Paul Gutierrez

Bold prediction: Josh Jacobs gets his first 100-yard rushing game of the season. Jacobs averaged nearly 100 yards a game last season, so this prediction doesn’t seem that bold. However, in the Week 2 loss to the Buffalo Bills, Jacobs had minus-2 rushing yards on nine attempts after just 48 yards a week earlier. Jacobs gets back on track this week against the Steelers, who have allowed the most rush yards over expected (plus-144) of any defense through Week 2 since 2018, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Davante Adams has 116 straight games with a reception, the fifth-longest active streak in the league, trailing DeAndre Hopkins (147), Travis Kelce (144), Stefon Diggs (121) and Zach Ertz (118).

Matchup X factor: Pickett. The Steelers quarterback was bailed out by the defense in Week 2, but he has to be better for Pittsburgh to succeed going forward. Pickett has an 18.8 QBR, which ranks last of all qualifying quarterbacks. — Walder

Injuries: Steelers | Raiders

What to know for fantasy: This season, the Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. In order for Pittsburgh running backs to capitalize on this trend, its offensive line must perform better. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Mike Tomlin is 2-6 ATS in his career against the Raiders. He is 3-5 outright, all as a favorite. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Steelers 24, Raiders 21
Walder’s pick: Raiders 27, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: LV, 50.8% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Fitzpatrick on Chubb hit: ‘I’m not a dirty player’ … Adams criticizes ‘out of control’ safety Rapp … Can Pickens help save the Steelers’ offense? … Two games, one target: Renfrow trying to make sense of Raiders role

---

Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: PHI -5 (46)

Storyline to watch: Almost no one saw the Bucs starting the season off 2-0, but their matchup with the defending NFC champions will be the only battle of unbeatens in Week 3. With the league’s top two run-stopping units, plus defenses that have a combined 12.0 sacks and 11 takeaways, you get the feeling this one will come down to who can protect their quarterback better. — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Mike Evans will find the end zone twice. He is coming off a monster six-catch, 171-yard performance against the Bears, and now faces a banged-up Eagles secondary that just lost slot corner Avonte Maddox for the year with a torn pec. Mario Goodrich got his first action as a pro in his place. It’s a safe bet the Bucs will line Evans up inside to try to take advantage of Maddox’s absence. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown represent 79% of the Eagles’ receiving yards, 59% of the targets and 55% of the receptions this season (highest percentage of a team’s receiving yards by a duo this season).

Matchup X factor: Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. He has faced the lowest rate of light boxes (harder to throw against) in the league, and I suspect that will change this week if Tampa Bay falls behind. — Walder

Injuries: Eagles | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: Evans and Chris Godwin are a talented and versatile wide receiver duo, and Tampa Bay should rely heavily on them. The Eagles currently rank 31st in the league in pass defense, allowing 326 yards per game. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Mayfield is 3-0 ATS in his past three starts and 5-2 ATS in his past seven starts. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 17
Walder’s pick: Eagles 30, Buccaneers 10
FPI prediction: PHI, 69.6% (by an average of 7.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tests confirm Maddox tore his pectoral muscle … Bucs WR Mike Evans’ big day prompts online trend … Buccaneers’ Shaq Barrett dedicates pick-six to late daughter

---

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: CIN -3 (44)

Storyline to watch: Will Joe Burrow be available on Sunday? The Cincinnati QB is day-to-day as he continues to recover from a strained right calf that he reinjured in Week 2. Whether it’s Burrow or backup QB Jake Browning, the Bengals’ offense that ranks last in total yards per game (212.0) will face a Rams defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (272.5) this season. — Ben Baby

Bold prediction: Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Bengals, Aaron Donald will take advantage of Cincinnati’s interior offensive line with two sacks Monday night. Although it’s a new combination of guard-center-guard for the Bengals, the group has struggled to protect the quarterback, ranking 31st in pass block win rate among interior offensive lines since the start of the 2022 season. Donald leads all interior defenders (with 100 interior pass-rush plays with win or loss) in pass rush win rate over that same span. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: Matthew Stafford’s 93 pass attempts this season rank second in the NFL behind Mac Jones (96). Stafford would need to throw 41 times to tie his career high for most pass attempts through his team’s first three games of a season (135 in 2018 with the Lions).

Matchup X factor: Bengals cornerbacks Cam Taylor-Britt and Chidobe Awuzie. Can anyone stop rookie star receiver Puka Nacua? Taylor-Britt and Awuzie will be the latest to try. — Walder

Injuries: Rams | Bengals

What to know for fantasy: With Akers gone, RB Kyren Williams could easily be a must-start. In last week’s game against the 49ers, Williams played 96% of the offensive snaps and had 20 touches. The Bengals rank 31st in rushing yards allowed so far this season, which should give Williams room to work. See Week 3 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games as a favorite. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bengals 26, Rams 23
Walder’s pick: Rams 26, Bengals 20
FPI prediction: CIN, 65.3% (by an average of 5.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Meet Rams sensation Nacua … Burrow ‘day-to-day’ after tweaking calf injury in loss to Ravens

Even though neither player’s career is even close to being over, the Aaron Judge vs Bryce Harper debate has already begun.

Both are surely going to end up being among the best players of their generation and could one day be considered among the greatest outfielders of all time. But who has had the better career and who will go down as the better player?

Aaron Judge vs Bryce Harper

Naturally, the Harper vs Judge debate is a difficult one because both players have their strengths. Proving a stats comparison of Judge and Harper is a good start but isn’t nearly enough. That’s why we wanted to look at the numbers but also look beyond the numbers to compare Judge and Harper.

Power

Needless to say, both Judge and Harper are among MLB’s elite players in large part because of their power. Both have an impressive amount of power, but Judge has a clear advantage in this area. His career slugging percentage is more than 50 points higher than Harper’s and is nearly at .600. Judge also earns huge points for his 62-homer season in 2002 not to mention the 52 home runs he hit during his first full season in the big leagues in 2017, leading the American League both years.

On the other hand, Harper has showcased consistent power throughout his career but has only surpassed 40 home runs once. In fact, the 2015 season is the only time Harper hit more than 35 home runs in a season. While Harper should easily surpass 300 career home runs and perhaps reach 400 or 500, his power has declined somewhat following Tommy John surgery whereas Judge has had no such problem.

Average

Both Judge and Harper are better at hitting for an average than most people recognize. However, they are roughly even in this category.

Judge might have a slight edge because his career average is a little higher, but both are hovering around .280. In fairness, Harper has had three seasons in which he’s hit over .300 whereas Judge has just one.

However, Harper also has more years in the majors. Also, outside of his shortened rookie season, Judge has hit under .270 just once while Harper has had four seasons hitting below that mark, making Judge a slightly more consistent performer when it comes to hitting for average.

Defense

This is another category where it’s tough to differentiate Judge from Harper, as neither has ever won a Gold Glove. To Harper’s credit, he was a catcher in high school and college before transitioning to the outfield. During his career, he’s played all three outfield positions effectively. He’s surely athletic enough to cover plenty of ground while his strong arm has been an asset as well.

However, after needing Tommy John surgery following the 2022 season, it’s unclear if and when Harper will return to being a full-time outfielder and if his arm strength will continue to be a weapon.

On the other hand, Judge has surpassed modest expectations for his defense. Like Harper, he possesses a strong arm that plays well in right field. But Judge has also shown plenty of range for someone who is 6’7’’ and 280 pounds, making several highlight-reel catches. He’s also been able to play center field for the Yankees, starting over 100 games there, mostly out of need. Given the value that he’s provided to the Yankees in the outfield, Judge is close to equal footing with Harper defensively.

Intangibles

Outside of their hitting and defense, Judge and Harper both bring something to the table. While Harper has often been criticized for his brash style of cockiness, that’s not always a negative. If nothing else, he’s a high-energy and enthusiastic player who brings confidence, drive, and a strong work ethic. Those are all traits that can rub off on his teammates and make them better players. 

Of course, Judge isn’t exactly a cancer in the clubhouse. In fact, he’s quite the opposite. Judge isn’t necessarily going to be vocal, but he will lead by example.

He has a quiet confidence about him and has always been well-liked by his teammates. After signing his nine-year, $360 million contract, Judge was named captain of the Yankees. He more than deserves such a title and is the perfect person to follow in the footsteps of Derek Jeter and other Yankee legends. In fact, his leadership and other intangibles no doubt made the Yankees comfortable signing him to that contract.

Trophy Case

Like it or not, statistics and awards mean a lot in baseball, which is why MLB players with the most MVPs usually end up being considered among the best of all time. Coming out of the 2022 season, Harper might have a slight edge on his trophy case, as he owns two MVP awards, and two Silver Sluggers, and has been named an all-star seven times.

Judge, meanwhile, has just four all-star selections and one MVP. However, he has three Silver Sluggers and led the American League in RBIs in 2022, something Harper has failed to do in the National League. For what it’s worth, both players took home Rookie of the Year honors early in their careers.

Verdict

With both Harper and Judge having plenty of years ahead of them, it’d be a little unfair to render a verdict right now. However, Judge might have a slight edge over Harper right now. Any edge that Harper has statistically is likely related to the fact that he was in the league three-plus years before Judge, yet is still younger.

But the fact that Judge is perhaps the greatest power hitter of the current generation and is still a well-rounded player gives him an advantage over just about anyone in the game outside of Mike Trout. Harper also has some lingering questions about what he’ll be like after Tommy John surgery. That’s enough to give Judge the edge in a head-to-head debate with Harper.